MOCK DRAFT #1: Results and Analysis

FPL Draft Community Mock Draft #1: June 22, 2019

By: Joe Williams (@JBoom193)

It’s early days yet, and the transfer rumours continue to rage. But the #FPLDraft community didn’t let that stop them from hammering out an early 10 team mock draft. With the brand new FPL Draft Community League ready to kick off its inaugural season, managers were excited to get a feel for how the draft might play out in late July. So, without further ado, here were the results. Note: managers drafting in this mock agreed upon using Togga scoring. For those unfamiliar with this format, this format scores players as follows:

ROUND 1

The Usual Suspects: As was expected, we saw many of the elite strikers taken in the first round. Salah, Sterling, Aguero, Mane, and Kane are sure to be first-rounders, no matter the scoring format. The likes of KDB and Eriksen are obvious first round picks as well due to the fact that their teams’ offenses move almost entirely through them. Few surprises here, as managers chose to go with stalwarts they could depend on for consistency at a high level.

Now That’s Interesting: Harry Kane goes off the board at #3 overall, which many would argue might be a tad too high. However, at full strength with a full season, you can see him finishing there easily. Can we count on Kane for a full season, though? Hard to say, but history would tell us not to. Other notable picks included Bilva (Bernardo Silva) at 8 and Son at 10. With the way that Bilva finished the season, this is certainly no reach. However, taking Peptation into account, it’s still a risk. Though, knowing @chuckboothsport’s thinking on this issue, he’s keen on Bilva having an absolute blow-up year. Son at the turn may strike some as a reach. Well, the South Korean scored 10.4 pts/gm last year, which landed him right around 40th overall in the end-of-season rankings. However, he only played 66 minutes per game and returned to the Prem knackered from international duty. I honestly don’t blame @BigPhatFantasy here for this pick, as the player appears primed for a bounce-back. Granted, to stake your first-round pick on it is a gamble.

Value Watch 2019!: Auba right before the first round turn screams value to me. This is a player who scored <100 pts fewer than Salah in Togga scoring, played 10 fewer minutes per game on average than the Egyptian, and played under a new coach in Emery, who was figuring out his preferred system. Did I mention that Auba was still the co-golden boot winner despite all of that? An elite striker in the back of the first round? I’ll take it.

The Dream Team: It’s the first round and all teams came away with a gem. There are no clear standouts… yet.

ROUND 2

Things started to get interesting, as usually happens after Round 1. Rounds 2 & 3 are where we really start to see how different managers value particular players and how they value each position in the construction of their teams. Here’s how it played out:

The Usual Suspects: No surprises here seeing players like Siggy, Pogba (if he stays), Firmino, Rashford, and Dilva (David Silva) go off the board in round 2. Managers are looking for dependable starters and they’ll find them in these guys, with the exception of an odd crap game now and again… or maybe a bit more often if you’re a Pogba owner.

Now That’s Interesting: We were hoping for talking points, and this round delivered! First of all, I just showed my cards in terms of my distaste for Pogba. I consider him a head case and, when dissatisfied, he regularly fails to deliver results. I don’t like him at #11, but I understand the case to be made, especially with the lack of midfield options. I would take Siggy 10 times out of 10 before Pogba. Also, last year Maddison and Anderson would have been lucky to be taken in the 6th round, but after elite (and incredibly consistent) performances last year, don’t be surprised to see them taken in Round 2 this year. And don’t be afraid to snag them yourself. This is right where they belong. It might be tempting to see @tottiandor take Firmino at #16 and call that a value, and it very well may be. But let’s remember that even when healthy at the end of the season, Bobby was slumping hard and Pool were struggling for goals. Are those problems worked out? Only time will tell. But the question in the draft becomes would you rather a player like Lacazette or Anderson over him? Next, with United in shambles, I’m tempted to call Rashford a reach at #13. But that’s only if he’s in not the clear #1 striker for the Devils by August. If Lukaku gets his move and Icardi is not on his way to Manchester, I like @chuckboothsports’s pick a lot. Finally, we have to talk about Robertson. Folks, I’m a Liverpool fan, and not a casual one. But taking a defender in the early rounds is incredibly risky unless they score a boatload of offensive points, too. Robbo fits that bill, but just know that it’s still a gamble, as you’re also relying on clean sheets to a certain extent (which are very hard to predict).

Value Watch 2019!: For this round, value judgments are based on coaching decisions, unfortunately. If Laca is actually played in a two-headed attack with Auba next year, he’s a massive value here. If Dilva still starts consistently and his age doesn’t show, he should be a first-rounder. And if Firmino finds his scoring boots, @tottiandor stole one in the second round.

The Dream Team: Let’s check in on teams thus far and then by round 3, we can start to gauge which teams seem strongest in this mock 10-team league.

Pick 1 – @ipredictapayet: Salah & Alli

Pick 2 – @ZBayant: Sterling & Robertson

Pick 3 – @sewadyllo: Kane & Dilva

Pick 4 – @AriJons: KDB & Laca

Pick 5 – @sean_sullivan_1: Aguero & Anderson

Pick 6 – @tottiandor: Mane & Firmino

Pick 7 – @joeybob88888: Eriksen & Maddison

Pick 8 – @chuckboothsport: Bilva & Rashford

Pick 9 – @FPLDraft: Auba & Siggy

Pick 10 – @BigPhatFantasy: Son & Pogba

ROUND 3

From spectating this draft live, I can tell you that it became quickly apparent to me that Round 3 will be huge this year. There is legitimate Round 1 talent to be had in Round 3 in 2019 and if you plan your draft right, you’ll be able to take full advantage.

The Usual Suspects: I can’t say that there were any real surprises this round. All of these players deserved to be drafted by Round 3 and a case can be made for each. While many like Zaha and Vardy might even go in Round 2 in many drafts, players like MiliVARjevic, Richarlison, and Fraser are all Round 3 contenders.

Now That’s Interesting: Just looking at Round 3 unfold, what struck me immediately was the absolute class of the players still available in this round. The aforementioned MiliVARjevic, who received his new nickname due to the fact that he’s a penalty specialist and (if Zaha doesn’t leave) could have 20 of them this year with VAR, is one I’m not fully bought in on yet. His last 2 seasons have been stellar, though. I just hate when a player is so dependent on those PKs for points. That being said, Zaha is one of the most fouled players in the league. So, if he stays, “Milo” is definitely a third rounder. Also, we’re starting to see more and more DEFs taken this round. Granted, guys like VVD, Alexander-Arnold, and Digne score like attackers and are probably worth the value here. But just remember that much smarter people than I (looking at you, here, @fantasygaffer) have done the research and found that streaming DEF can be just as effective, if not more, than taking DEFs early in the draft. That about does it for this round, as most players drafted were fairly predictable.

Value Watch 2019!: Vardy, Jimenez, and Zaha in Round 3!? Sign me up every day, and twice on Sundays. That’s incredible value. Again, I know we’re dealing with a MID shortage, but I would likely draft any of those 3 over Alli. 

The Dream Team: Here are the teams as they stand:

Pick 1 – @ipredictapayet: Salah, Alli, Vardy

Pick 2 – @ZBayant: Sterling, Robertson, Jimenez

Pick 3 – @sewadyllo: Kane, Dilva, TAA

Pick 4 – @AriJons: KDB, Laca, Zaha

Pick 5 – @sean_sullivan_1: Aguero, Anderson, Wilson

Pick 6 – @tottiandor: Mane, Firmino, Milo

Pick 7 – @joeybob88888: Eriksen, Maddison, Richarlison

Pick 8 – @chuckboothsport: Bilva, Rashford, Fraser

Pick 9 – @FPLDraft: Auba, Siggy, VVD

Pick 10 – @BigPhatFantasy: Son, Pogba, Digne

Just to note a couple of strong teams at this point, @AriJons, @ipredictapayet, and @tottiandor are all off to an amazing start. Through 3 rounds, @AriJons is the lead horse for me. The combo of the most elite MID in the game plus 2 solid FWD options sets him up nicely to score huge on some weeks and consistently on most weeks.

ROUNDS 4 & 5

Yes, now we start to condense our coverage, unfortunately. I’m simply not going to be able to write a novella about each of these rounds going forward as I did with the first 3. But, not to worry, we will still analyze. Oh, will we ever.

The Usual Suspects: Round 4 saw Doherty, Gros, Mkhy, and Moutinho go. Those are pretty standard fare for this round. You’ll notice I left a lot of names out… we’ll get to those. And Round 5 saw Grealish, Deulofeu, Deeny, Laporte and King go. Again, fairly standard. Now let’s discuss everyone else.

Now That’s Interesting: *Deep breath*….. Here we go. Pulisic in round 4 is interesting. I like it. They just lost their lynchpin in the offense. Pulisic is shifty and clever, and could deliver 3rd round (maybe 2nd) value. Townsend at the end of Round 4 is also a hell of a pick for a player who finished just outside of the top 20! Moura could be an absolute steal here. COULD BE. If that man has not earned himself more playing time after the way he ended last season, then he needs to hand Potch his transfer papers now. I’d be comfortable with Moura earlier in the draft. Mkhy at the end of Round 4 is also great value, because, you know… who else does Arsenal really have? I also really loved @ipredictapayet’s 4/5 turn with Mkhy and Grealish. Savvy, mate. Sane, at this point, doesn’t necessarily warrant comment, as it looks like he’s leaving. But this mock is current players, so we can’t blame BPP. King in Round 5 strikes me as early, as does Deulofeu. However, I have to also give some schtick to my mate, @tottiandor for his Mahrez  pick here. Does Totti know something that the rest of us don’t? Will Mahrez actually play in more domestic games (and not cup matches) this year? I’m not so certain.

Value Watch 2019!: Short and sweet. Values in the 4th that popped out to me were Moura, Mkhy, and Townsend. I also love Jota there, but that’s about where he’ll go. Values in the 5th include Pereira and Almiron. Again, these are my takes, but if Almiron keeps his form up, he’s a consistent scorer along the lines of a Jota or Redmond. And in Pereira, BPP got a full back with as much potential as a Digne without having to pay the full price, though he also paid the full price because he did, in fact, draft Digne.

The Dream Team: Here are the teams as they stand:

Pick 1 – @ipredictapayet: Salah, Alli, Vardy, Mky, Grealish

Pick 2 – @ZBayant: Sterling, Robertson, Jimenez, Moura, Deulofeu

Pick 3 – @sewadyllo: Kane, Dilva, TAA, Moutinho, King

Pick 4 – @AriJons: KDB, Laca, Zaha, Towns, Laporte

Pick 5 – @sean_sullivan_1: Aguero, Anderson, Wilson, Redmond, Almiron

Pick 6 – @tottiandor: Mane, Firmino, Milo, Doherty, Mahrez

Pick 7 – @joeybob88888: Eriksen, Maddison, Richarlison, Pulisic, JWP

Pick 8 – @chuckboothsport: Bilva, Rashford, Fraser, Gros, Deeny

Pick 9 – @FPLDraft: Auba, Siggy, VVD, Jota, Walker

Pick 10 – @BigPhatFantasy: Son, Pogba, Digne, Sane, Periera

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